Biggest move this week · Mortgage Rates
30-year mortgage rates eased for a third straight week
The average 30-year fixed rate slipped to 6.38%, continuing a gradual decline since early September as Treasury yields have cooled. For Houston buyers, that's a modest but real improvement in monthly affordability compared to a month ago.
Next Fed Decision
Dec 10
59 days away
30-Yr Fixed Rate
6.38%
−0.07 pts this week
10-Yr Treasury Yield
4.02%
−0.04 pts this week
Est. Payment Change
−$18/mo
on $400,000 over 30 yrs
The Rate Outlook
Where rates stand, and where they're headed
Fed Funds Rate
4.00%–4.25%
0%6%
Markets are pricing in
- Dec 10, 20263.75%–4.00%
- Jan 28, 20273.75%–4.00%
- Mar 18, 20273.50%–3.75%
Treasury yields
- 2-Year3.58%
- 10-Year4.02%
- 30-Year4.61%
30-Year Mortgage Rate · Last 10 Weeks
6.38%
Market-implied rate expectations shift daily and are not a guarantee of future Fed decisions — treat these as a general directional guide, not a forecast.
What Moved This Week
The numbers shaping the Houston market
Weekly
6.38%
30-Yr Mortgage Rate
Third consecutive weekly decline.
Daily
4.02%
10-Yr Treasury Yield
Mortgage rates typically track this closely.
Monthly
4.1%
Houston Unemployment
Roughly in line with the national rate.
Monthly
2,340
Houston Housing Starts
Builders remain active despite higher rates.
Monthly
$346,000
Houston Median Home Price
Up slightly year over year.
Monthly
3.2%
National Inflation (CPI)
Still above the Fed's 2% target.
Monthly
4.1 months
Houston Active Inventory
A more balanced market than a year ago.
What It Means For Your Mortgage
Translating this week's numbers into real payments
National rate averages · applied to a $400,000 loan example
$2,497/mo
Today's rate (6.38%) on $400,000
−$18/mo
Vs. a month ago
+$52/mo
If rates rise 0.25 pts
6.12%
This week's average refinance rate
$186/mo
Est. savings refinancing from an 7.5% loan
2–3 yrs
Typical breakeven on closing costs
5.85%
Current average 5/1 ARM start rate
$2,353/mo
Initial payment on $400,000
5 yrs
Typical fixed period before adjustment
These are illustrative estimates based on public rate averages, not a quote from any specific lender. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan details — I'm happy to connect you with lenders I trust for a real quote.
The Road Ahead
What's coming before the next Fed decision
Oct 23
Jobs Report (BLS)
Nov 13
Inflation Report (CPI)
Dec 10
Federal Reserve Decision
The Bigger Picture
Four questions worth tracking
Overall: Cautiously Improving
Will mortgage rates keep easing?
TailwindRates have trended down for three weeks as cooler inflation data gives the Fed more room to cut. If that trend holds, buyers waiting on the sidelines may see modestly better affordability into early next year.
Will Houston buyers show up?
NeutralHouston employment remains stable, which supports buyer demand, but elevated rates are still keeping some would-be buyers in a holding pattern. Showing activity has ticked up modestly this month.
Is more housing supply coming?
TailwindHouston's lack of zoning keeps new construction flowing even in a higher-rate environment, which has kept inventory healthier here than in many other major metros.
Is the wider economy helping or hurting?
HeadwindInflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, which keeps some uncertainty around how quickly rates can come down. Energy-sector conditions, a key driver of Houston's economy, remain mixed.
How This Page Is Built
This page is reviewed and updated using public data from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the Federal Reserve (FRED), the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and HAR.com's MLS reports for the Houston metro. It's intended to give you a quick, honest read on the economic backdrop — not financial or lending advice.
- Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- HAR.com — Houston MLS Market Reports
Data last refreshed: October 12, 2026
See what the local market is doing →
Anisa Hoxha
Top 1% Houston Realtor · Hoxha Realty Group
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